PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeCampo de Futbol de VallecasFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
Shots15 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.72 corners/match▲CornersRayo Vallecano · Athletic Club5.38 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic ClubBaseline
Corners5.72 corners/match5.38 corners/match4.5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
1Athletic Club
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 6 · 6 too close

0.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/26▲1.15 goals/match
1.28 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/261.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/26▲14.2 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/26▲9.5 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/264.54 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/264.19 shots/match
53.8%Possessionseason · 25/2649.6%
5.72 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/265.38 corners/match
5.08 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/26▲3.92 corners/match
3.04 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/26▲2.5 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2613.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2619%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/26▲69%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano72.5
Athletic Club52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano55.8
Athletic Club62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano59.2
Athletic Club64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Athletic Club77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano80
Athletic Club71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Athletic Club72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano73.8
Athletic Club75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/550.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
3.6 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/517.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.3 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target10/105.4 shots/match
53.1%Possession10/1051.8%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards10/103.3 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 26 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored25/26▲1.15 goals/match
1.28 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/261.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots25/26▲14.2 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target25/264.54 shots/match
53.8%Possession25/2649.6%
5.72 corners/matchCorners25/265.38 corners/match
3.04 cards/matchCards25/262.5 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2613.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 13 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored12/131 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots12/1313.2 shots/match
5.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/134.15 shots/match
54.3%Possession12/1347.4%
6.5 corners/matchCorners12/135.08 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards12/132.85 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1313.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.71 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match