PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealValencia
Shots12 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Villarreal. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Villarreal.

4.04 days▲Rest daysVillarreal · Valencia7.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVillarrealValenciaBaseline
Rest days4.04 days7.1 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Valencia have a visible away split

moderate

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.69 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.69 shots/match11 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Villarreal
0Draws
0Valencia
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Valencia in 1 · 5 too close

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.04 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2511 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2512.1 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/252.88 shots/match
3.48 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.32 shots/match
44.5%Possessionseason · 25/2548.8%
4.08 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255 corners/match
4.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.92 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲2.16 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2512.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2576%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal30
Valencia42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal69.2
Valencia25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal71.7
Valencia43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal72.5
Valencia27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal67.5
Valencia40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal32.5
Valencia65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal53.8
Valencia38.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/548.8%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.4 shots/match
3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match
41.1%Possession10/1051.3%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.04 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots25/2511 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target25/252.88 shots/match
44.5%Possession25/2548.8%
4.08 corners/matchCorners25/255 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards25/252.16 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
2.23 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.85 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots13/138.69 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.46 shots/match
48.8%Possession13/1346.4%
5.31 corners/matchCorners13/133.77 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealValencia
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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