PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Estadio de la Ceramica

Villarreal 2–1 Valencia · La Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Villarreal won 2–1.

Shots
128
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
2.061.55
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Villarreal beat Valencia 2–1. Recorded in this match (Villarreal – Valencia): shots 12–8, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 2.06–1.55, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Villarreal.

4.04 days ▲Rest daysVillarreal · Valencia7.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVillarrealValenciaBaseline
Rest days4.04 days7.1 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Valencia have a visible away split

moderate

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.69 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.69 shots/match11 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots8 shotsVillarreal 12 shots, Valencia 8 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsVillarreal 5 shots, Valencia 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.06 xG1.55 xGVillarreal 2.06 xG, Valencia 1.55 xG
  • Possession43%57%Villarreal 43%, Valencia 57%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersVillarreal 5 corners, Valencia 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls16 foulsVillarreal 7 fouls, Valencia 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsVillarreal 2 cards, Valencia 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

José Copete · Valencia · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJavier Guerra · Valencia · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Valencia · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGeorges Mikautadze · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Mouriño · Villarreal · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosé Copete · Valencia · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 8′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Mouriño · Villarreal · 43′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 44′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLargie Ramazani · Valencia · 78′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedUmar Sadiq · Valencia · 89′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGeorges Mikautadze · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedArnaut Danjuma · Valencia · 78′ · 0.45 xG · on targetSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 31′ · 0.57 xG · goalLargie Ramazani · Valencia · 27′ · 0.82 xG · goalPape Gueye · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.09 xG. Valencia: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Santi Comesaña · Villarreal · 31′Pape Gueye · Villarreal · 45′Largie Ramazani · Valencia · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 2.09 xG · Valencia 1.64 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Villarreal
2Draws
1Valencia
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga0–2
Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga1–1
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga1–1
Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga1–0
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Villarreal favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Valencia in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Villarreal25 matchesValencia25 matches
1.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.04 goals/match
1.08 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.56 goals/match
1.54 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/251.23 xG/match
12.1 shots/match ▲Shots25/2511 shots/match
4.52 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/252.88 shots/match
44.5%Possession25/25● 48.8%
4.08 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards25/252.16 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVillarrealValencia
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headVillarreal — Valencia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required