PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealEspanyol
Shots10 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners5 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Villarreal
0Draws
0Espanyol
Espanyol — Villarreal · La Liga0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Espanyol in 2 · 8 too close

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/231.17 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/231.35 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/23▲12.9 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/2312.4 shots/match
4.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/234.3 shots/match
3.55 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/234.3 shots/match
44.2%Possessionseason · 22/2342.5%
4.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/234.57 corners/match
4.59 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/234.61 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/23▲2.17 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2313 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2330%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2378%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal27.5
Espanyol12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal72.5
Espanyol52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal65
Espanyol50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal72.5
Espanyol92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal57.5
Espanyol51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal32.5
Espanyol42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal52.5
Espanyol56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/550.8%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.6 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
43%Possession10/1043.8%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 23 matches
1.95 goals/match▲Goals scored22/231.17 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/231.35 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots22/23▲12.9 shots/match
4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target22/234.3 shots/match
44.2%Possession22/2342.5%
4.14 corners/matchCorners22/234.57 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards22/232.17 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls22/2313 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.18 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1113.5 shots/match
5.42 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.91 shots/match
49.3%Possession12/1142.1%
5.33 corners/matchCorners12/114.45 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards12/111.82 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1112.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 10 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealEspanyol
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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