La Liga · 2025Mon, 12 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Ramón Sánchez PizjuánFull-time recap

Sevilla

LDWLL

0–1Full-time recap

Celta Vigo

LWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sevilla	Celta Vigo
Shots	7 shots/match	9 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Possession	59%	41%
Corners	6 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.32 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sevilla favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 6 · 6 too close

1.26 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/191.32 goals/match

1.58 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.05 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1910.3 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1912.4 shots/match

3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲3.95 shots/match

4.74 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲4.37 shots/match

54.7%Possessionseason · 19/1949.4%

5.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/193.79 corners/match

4.74 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/194.74 corners/match

3.26 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲2 cards/match

15.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1911.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲26%

74%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sevilla80

Celta Vigo50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sevilla44.2

Celta Vigo50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sevilla40.8

Celta Vigo55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sevilla12.5

Celta Vigo17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sevilla92.5

Celta Vigo31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sevilla62.5

Celta Vigo22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sevilla55.6

Celta Vigo34.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57.8 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match

55.6%Possession5/543.4%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/51.6 corners/match

3.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11 shots/match▲Shots10/109.3 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match

57%Possession10/1046.8%

6 corners/matchCorners10/102.2 corners/match

3.3 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match

14.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches

1.26 goals/matchGoals scored19/191.32 goals/match

1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.05 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.3 shots/match

3.63 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲3.95 shots/match

54.7%Possession19/1949.4%

5.16 corners/matchCorners19/193.79 corners/match

3.26 cards/matchCards19/192 cards/match

15.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/91.33 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲0.78 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.5 shots/match▲Shots10/99.44 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲4.22 shots/match

57.7%Possession10/945.2%

5.3 corners/matchCorners10/92.89 corners/match

3.1 cards/matchCards10/92.33 cards/match

16.2 fouls/matchFouls10/913 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.29 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 13 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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