PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Santiago BernabéuFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Sevilla

WLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridSevilla
Shots18 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.4 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Sevilla11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridSevillaBaseline
Shots19.4 shots/match11 shots/match11.1 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Sevilla in 0 · 4 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/171.41 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/171.53 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1711 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1711.1 shots/match
7.11 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/173.53 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/174.65 shots/match
58.7%Possessionseason · 18/1753.9%
6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/175.12 corners/match
3.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/175.18 corners/match
2.11 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/173.29 cards/match
9.94 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1715.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1724%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1782%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid87.5
Sevilla77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid90.8
Sevilla48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid89.2
Sevilla37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid97.5
Sevilla12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid22.5
Sevilla90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid82.5
Sevilla62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid68.8
Sevilla54.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/557.4%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
55.9%Possession10/1054.4%
7.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/103.6 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 17 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored18/171.41 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/171.53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.4 shots/match▲Shots18/1711 shots/match
7.11 shots/match▲Shots on target18/173.53 shots/match
58.7%Possession18/1753.9%
6.33 corners/matchCorners18/175.12 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards18/173.29 cards/match
9.94 fouls/matchFouls18/1715.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.11 goals/match
0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.3 shots/match▲Shots8/910.4 shots/match
7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.22 shots/match
59.9%Possession8/951.3%
6.63 corners/matchCorners8/95 corners/match
3.13 cards/matchCards8/93.44 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/914.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.29 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridSevilla
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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