PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Estadio de la Ceramica

Villarreal 4–0 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Villarreal won 4–0.

Shots
1613
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
3.021.02
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Villarreal beat Rayo Vallecano 4–0. Recorded in this match (Villarreal – Rayo Vallecano): shots 16–13, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 3.02–1.02, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Rayo Vallecano have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%PossessionVillarreal · Rayo Vallecano● 53.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealRayo VallecanoBaseline
Possession45.3%53.3%51.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots13 shotsVillarreal 16 shots, Rayo Vallecano 13 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsVillarreal 7 shots, Rayo Vallecano 3 shots
  • Expected goals3.02 xG1.02 xGVillarreal 3.02 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.02 xG
  • Possession47%53%Villarreal 47%, Rayo Vallecano 53%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersVillarreal 3 corners, Rayo Vallecano 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls11 foulsVillarreal 7 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardVillarreal 1 card, Rayo Vallecano 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Florian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 27′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJosep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNobel Mendy · Rayo Vallecano · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlemão · Rayo Vallecano · 12′ · 0.04 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 22′ · 0.07 xG · goalIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 35′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 4′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 56′ · 0.08 xG · goalTajon Buchanan · Villarreal · 75′ · 0.08 xG · on targetGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 16′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Pedraza · Villarreal · 19′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDani Parejo · Villarreal · 89′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 69′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 86′ · 0.16 xG · on targetTani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal · 53′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 65′ · 0.45 xG · goalSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 58′ · 0.65 xG · goalNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 53′ · 0.93 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 16 shots, 7 on target, 3.24 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Gerard Moreno · Villarreal · 22′Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal · 56′Santi Comesaña · Villarreal · 58′Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 3.24 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.94 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Villarreal
2Draws
1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga0–1
Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1
Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0
Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga1–1
Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Villarreal favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Villarreal11 matchesRayo Vallecano11 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match
0.91 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.27 goals/match
1.78 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.42 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots11/1112.7 shots/match
5.09 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/114.27 shots/match
45.3%Possession11/11● 53.3%
5 corners/matchCorners11/11● 6.27 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards11/112.36 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVillarrealRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headVillarreal — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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