PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealRayo Vallecano
Shots16 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Rayo Vallecano have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%▲PossessionVillarreal · Rayo Vallecano53.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealRayo VallecanoBaseline
Possession45.3%53.3%51.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 1 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.09 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.27 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1112.7 shots/match
12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲11.5 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/114.27 shots/match
3.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/114.18 shots/match
45.3%Possessionseason · 11/1153.3%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/116.27 corners/match
3.73 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/115.18 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/112.36 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%
91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1164%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal22.5
Rayo Vallecano82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal82.5
Rayo Vallecano55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal71.7
Rayo Vallecano51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal87.5
Rayo Vallecano47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal40
Rayo Vallecano70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal52.5
Rayo Vallecano80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal58.8
Rayo Vallecano68.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
40.4%Possession5/553.2%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match
43%Possession10/1053%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.7 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.27 shots/match
45.3%Possession11/1153.3%
5 corners/matchCorners11/116.27 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards11/112.36 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored6/71.29 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shots6/711.4 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/73.57 shots/match
52.7%Possession6/752.3%
6.5 corners/matchCorners6/75.14 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards6/72.29 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls6/714.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.71 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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