PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio Santiago BernabéuFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridBarcelona
Shots23 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners12 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Barcelona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.5 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Barcelona20.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridBarcelonaBaseline
Shots19.5 shots/match20.5 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Barcelona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Barcelona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.5 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.8 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · Barcelona7.1 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridBarcelonaBaseline
Corners5.8 corners/match7.1 corners/match5.15 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Barcelona in 4 · 6 too close

2.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲2.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1020.5 shots/match
10.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲9 shots/match
7.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲8.3 shots/match
3.1 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/103.9 shots/match
60.6%Possessionseason · 10/1070.4%
5.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/107.1 corners/match
3.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/104.9 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.9 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/109.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1030%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid85
Barcelona65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid92.5
Barcelona82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid30
Barcelona11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid70
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid68.1
Barcelona75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.4 shots/matchShots5/520.6 shots/match
7.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲9 shots/match
60.8%Possession5/570.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/58.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.5 shots/matchShots10/1020.5 shots/match
7.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.3 shots/match
60.6%Possession10/1070.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/107.1 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.5 shots/matchShots10/1020.5 shots/match
7.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.3 shots/match
60.6%Possession10/1070.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/107.1 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/62 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/61.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20 shots/matchShots5/619.3 shots/match
6.8 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲7.5 shots/match
60.6%Possession5/669.7%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/66.67 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/62.33 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/69.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridBarcelona
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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