PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeEstadio El SadarFull-time recap

Osasuna

LDLWL
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricOsasunaCelta Vigo
Shots17 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Celta Vigo have a visible away split

weak

Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Osasuna favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 5 · 7 too close

0.9 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲11.4 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲12.2 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲3.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/104.8 shots/match
45.9%Possessionseason · 10/1050.9%
2.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.2 corners/match
4.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/104.8 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/102.2 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/100%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Osasuna32.5
Celta Vigo47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Osasuna17.5
Celta Vigo42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Osasuna29.2
Celta Vigo40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Osasuna22.5
Celta Vigo42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Osasuna51.2
Celta Vigo37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Osasuna2.5
Celta Vigo55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Osasuna21.9
Celta Vigo41.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.4 shots/match
49.8%Possession5/543.6%
3 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.6 shots/match
45.9%Possession10/1050.9%
2.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.6 shots/match
45.9%Possession10/1050.9%
2.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/41.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/49 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/43.5 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/442%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/43.75 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/413.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.14 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsOsasunaCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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