PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeCampo de Futbol de VallecasFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Alaves

LDLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoAlaves
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners7 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Alaves's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Alaves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alaves's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.4 corners/match▲CornersRayo Vallecano · Alaves6.4 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoAlavesBaseline
Corners6.4 corners/match6.4 corners/match5.15 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

weak

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Alaves in 5 · 4 too close

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1011.5 shots/match
11.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲10.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/103.5 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.4 shots/match
53.3%Possessionseason · 10/1051.4%
6.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/106.4 corners/match
5.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲3.9 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲2.3 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1015.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1020%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Alaves57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano61.7
Alaves31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano66.7
Alaves85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano47.5
Alaves37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano73.8
Alaves70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano85
Alaves85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano71.2
Alaves62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/554.2%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/58.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.5 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
53.3%Possession10/1051.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.5 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
53.3%Possession10/1051.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 5 matches
0.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/50.4 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots4/59.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/53.2 shots/match
55%Possession4/550.8%
8.25 corners/matchCorners4/55.6 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/53.2 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls4/517.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoAlaves
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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