PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Osasuna

WLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridOsasuna
Shots18 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Osasuna's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Osasuna show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Osasuna's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsAtletico Madrid · Osasuna8.89 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtletico MadridOsasunaBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match8.89 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against8.67 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Atletico Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atletico Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.9%▲PossessionAtletico Madrid · Osasuna44.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAtletico MadridOsasunaBaseline
Possession54.9%44.2%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Osasuna in 2 · 5 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.78 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/98.89 shots/match
8.67 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/913.9 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/92.78 shots/match
2.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95 shots/match
54.9%Possessionseason · 9/944.2%
6.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/92.11 corners/match
2.89 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/94.89 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲2.22 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/956%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid82.5
Osasuna32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid77.5
Osasuna10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid90
Osasuna50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid57.5
Osasuna7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid48.8
Osasuna50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid67.5
Osasuna2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid61.2
Osasuna19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58.6 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
51%Possession5/544.4%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/52 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots9/98.89 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.78 shots/match
54.9%Possession9/944.2%
6.11 corners/matchCorners9/92.11 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/92.22 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/912.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots9/98.89 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.78 shots/match
54.9%Possession9/944.2%
6.11 corners/matchCorners9/92.11 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/92.22 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/912.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/57.8 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.8 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/541.6%
7.4 corners/matchCorners5/52 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridOsasuna
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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