PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Santiago BernabéuFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridVillarreal
Shots26 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners4 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Villarreal have a visible away split

weak

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.25 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.6 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Villarreal15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridVillarrealBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Villarreal in 2 · 5 too close

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.75 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/815.1 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/811.5 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/85.13 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/83.38 shots/match
62.3%Possessionseason · 8/846%
5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.25 corners/match
3.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲2.88 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.38 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/838%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/888%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Villarreal37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Villarreal84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid76.7
Villarreal68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid87.5
Villarreal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid22.5
Villarreal42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid55
Villarreal55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid63.1
Villarreal63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
60.8%Possession5/542.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.75 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots8/815.1 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/85.13 shots/match
62.3%Possession8/846%
5.25 corners/matchCorners8/85.25 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls8/811.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.75 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots8/815.1 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/85.13 shots/match
62.3%Possession8/846%
5.25 corners/matchCorners8/85.25 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls8/811.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.3 shots/match▲Shots4/49.25 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match
67.8%Possession4/434.8%
5 corners/matchCorners4/42.75 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/43.25 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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