PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 14:15 UTCFull timeEstadio Municipal de MontiliviFull-time recap

Girona

LDLDD
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricGironaValencia
Shots4 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners0 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Girona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia have a visible away split

weak

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.5 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Girona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Girona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.63 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Valencia.

7.8 days▲Rest daysGirona · Valencia3.84 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricGironaValenciaBaseline
Rest days7.8 days3.84 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Girona favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Valencia in 9 · 4 too close

0.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.25 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲10.5 shots/match
17.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲13.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.25 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲5.13 shots/match
45.4%Possessionseason · 8/847.9%
3.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.5 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.88 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.63 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲25%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Girona32.5
Valencia37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Girona18.3
Valencia39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Girona7.5
Valencia20.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Girona22.5
Valencia42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Girona48.8
Valencia23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Girona35
Valencia62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Girona25
Valencia40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/53.8 shots/match
42.6%Possession5/545.6%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
3.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.25 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShots8/8▲10.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.25 shots/match
45.4%Possession8/847.9%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards8/81.63 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/811.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.25 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShots8/8▲10.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.25 shots/match
45.4%Possession8/847.9%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards8/81.63 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/811.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲0.75 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/42.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/match▲Shots5/47.5 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target5/42.5 shots/match
48.6%Possession5/442.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/44.5 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/42 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/410.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.84 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsGironaValencia
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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