PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Tue, 30 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de MestallaFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

Oviedo

LWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaOviedo
Shots16 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Oviedo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Valencia have a visible home split

weak

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.29 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match9.29 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Oviedo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Oviedo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.57 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Valencia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.29 shots/match▲ShotsValencia · Oviedo7.57 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricValenciaOviedoBaseline
Shots9.29 shots/match7.57 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match18.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Oviedo in 0 · 6 too close

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.57 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.29 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/77.57 shots/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/718.9 shots/match
2.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/72.86 shots/match
5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/77 shots/match
46.9%Possessionseason · 7/737.9%
5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/72.71 corners/match
5.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/77.14 corners/match
1.71 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/73 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia37.5
Oviedo2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia27.5
Oviedo6.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia17.5
Oviedo6.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia17.5
Oviedo22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia25
Oviedo63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia52.5
Oviedo12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia27.5
Oviedo14.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.6 shots/matchShots5/58.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
46%Possession5/539.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.57 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.29 shots/match▲Shots7/77.57 shots/match
2.86 shots/matchShots on target7/72.86 shots/match
46.9%Possession7/737.9%
5.29 corners/matchCorners7/72.71 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/73 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.57 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.29 shots/match▲Shots7/77.57 shots/match
2.86 shots/matchShots on target7/72.86 shots/match
46.9%Possession7/737.9%
5.29 corners/matchCorners7/72.71 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/73 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots4/48 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
53%Possession4/441.5%
6.5 corners/matchCorners4/42.75 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/44 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/414 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.94 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Sept 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaOviedo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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