PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealAthletic Club
Shots14 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible home split

weak

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

21 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots21 shots/match16 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Villarreal.

3.98 days▲Rest daysVillarreal · Athletic Club4.08 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVillarrealAthletic ClubBaseline
Rest days3.98 days4.08 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 1 · 5 too close

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/713.7 shots/match
9.43 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/79.14 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74.29 shots/match
2.86 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/73.43 shots/match
48.3%Possessionseason · 7/753.7%
6 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.86 corners/match
2.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.29 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal42.5
Athletic Club62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal82.5
Athletic Club54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal89.2
Athletic Club75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal97.5
Athletic Club67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal37.5
Athletic Club35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal70
Athletic Club90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal65.6
Athletic Club70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/514.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
43.4%Possession5/557.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots7/713.7 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match
48.3%Possession7/753.7%
6 corners/matchCorners7/76.86 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/712.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots7/713.7 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match
48.3%Possession7/753.7%
6 corners/matchCorners7/76.86 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/712.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/30.67 goals/match
0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
21 shots/match▲Shots4/314 shots/match
7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/35 shots/match
57.3%Possession4/354.7%
7.75 corners/matchCorners4/37 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/32.33 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/311 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.08 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealAthletic Club
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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