PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 14:15 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
5–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridReal Madrid
Shots13 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession37%63%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match4 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid.

2.78 days▲Rest daysAtletico Madrid · Real Madrid3.78 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtletico MadridReal MadridBaseline
Rest days2.78 days3.78 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atletico Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 6 · 5 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.29 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲17.6 shots/match
7.29 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/710.3 shots/match
5.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲6.43 shots/match
2.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/73.14 shots/match
56.3%Possessionseason · 7/761.1%
6.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/75.43 corners/match
2.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.14 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.86 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/79.86 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid77.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid81.7
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid79.2
Real Madrid76.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid52.5
Real Madrid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid56.2
Real Madrid25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid87.5
Real Madrid60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid72.5
Real Madrid64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/52.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
6.2 shots/matchShots on target5/56 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/558.4%
7 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.29 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲17.6 shots/match
5.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲6.43 shots/match
56.3%Possession7/761.1%
6.86 corners/matchCorners7/75.43 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.29 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲17.6 shots/match
5.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲6.43 shots/match
56.3%Possession7/761.1%
6.86 corners/matchCorners7/75.43 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
2.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/42.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲18 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲7 shots/match
54.3%Possession4/456.8%
8.25 corners/matchCorners4/45.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/49.25 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.78 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.78 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridReal Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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