PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Wed, 24 Sept 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
Shots20 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners8 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atletico Madrid, Rayo Vallecano. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atletico Madrid, Rayo Vallecano.

3.22 days▲Rest daysAtletico Madrid · Rayo Vallecano3.31 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtletico MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Rest days3.22 days3.31 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.83 corners/match▲CornersAtletico Madrid · Rayo Vallecano6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtletico MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Corners6.83 corners/match6 corners/match5.08 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.17 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/612.8 shots/match
7.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/611.3 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/64.33 shots/match
2.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/64.83 shots/match
59.5%Possessionseason · 6/653.3%
6.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66 corners/match
2.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/64.5 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62.83 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/612.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid87.5
Rayo Vallecano62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid74.2
Rayo Vallecano55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid80.8
Rayo Vallecano38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid47.5
Rayo Vallecano52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid40
Rayo Vallecano70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid85
Rayo Vallecano72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid68.1
Rayo Vallecano61.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
59.4%Possession5/552.8%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots6/612.8 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.33 shots/match
59.5%Possession6/653.3%
6.83 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/62.83 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls6/612.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots6/612.8 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.33 shots/match
59.5%Possession6/653.3%
6.83 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/62.83 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls6/612.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/41.25 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots3/412.5 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/43.75 shots/match
60%Possession3/454.5%
8.67 corners/matchCorners3/45.5 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/43 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/412.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.31 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 24 Sept 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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