PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 12:00 UTCFull timeCampo de Futbol de VallecasFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Sevilla

LWDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoSevilla
Shots18 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession64%36%
Corners12 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano.

3.69 days▲Rest daysRayo Vallecano · Sevilla4.69 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRayo VallecanoSevillaBaseline
Rest days3.69 days4.69 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Sevilla10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoSevillaBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Sevilla in 3 · 6 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.4 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/712.3 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73.14 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.57 shots/match
54.9%Possessionseason · 7/753.1%
6.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.14 corners/match
4.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76.43 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/72.86 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/715.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲29%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano72.5
Sevilla62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano55.8
Sevilla43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano50.8
Sevilla40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Sevilla22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano70
Sevilla90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano87.5
Sevilla20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano65
Sevilla40.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
53.8%Possession5/549.4%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/517.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots7/710.4 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.14 shots/match
54.9%Possession7/753.1%
6.86 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls7/715.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots7/710.4 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.14 shots/match
54.9%Possession7/753.1%
6.86 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls7/715.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/4▲1.75 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots3/49.5 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/43.5 shots/match
55.3%Possession3/445.8%
8.67 corners/matchCorners3/43 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/43 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/415 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.69 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.69 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoSevilla
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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