PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 14:15 UTCFull timeEstadio Manuel Martínez ValeroFull-time recap

Elche

DWDWD
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricElcheCelta Vigo
Shots17 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Elche. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Elche.

2.86 days▲Rest daysElche · Celta Vigo7.09 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricElcheCelta VigoBaseline
Rest days2.86 days7.09 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Celta Vigo have a visible away split

weak

Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.33 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.33 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Elche's recent record differs from the season

weak

Elche's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match11 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Elche favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 1 · 5 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.86 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/711.6 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/711.7 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73.71 shots/match
3.14 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.71 shots/match
58.1%Possessionseason · 7/752.9%
3.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.14 corners/match
3.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.29 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.71 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Elche87.5
Celta Vigo62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Elche51.7
Celta Vigo39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Elche77.5
Celta Vigo44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Elche12.5
Celta Vigo37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Elche50
Celta Vigo35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Elche20
Celta Vigo72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Elche42.5
Celta Vigo55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/512.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
59.4%Possession5/550.2%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots7/711.6 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.71 shots/match
58.1%Possession7/752.9%
3.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.71 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/712.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots7/711.6 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.71 shots/match
58.1%Possession7/752.9%
3.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.71 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/712.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/31 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots4/38.33 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/33 shots/match
64.5%Possession4/343%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/34.33 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/32.33 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/314 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.86 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsElcheCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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