PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull time

SC Freiburg

4–1Full-time recap

RB Leipzig

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

moderate

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match15.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg52.8
RB Leipzig69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg47.2
RB Leipzig84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg50.9
RB Leipzig85.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg41.7
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg25
RB Leipzig11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg13.9
RB Leipzig75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg30.6
RB Leipzig68
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricSC FreiburgRB Leipzig
Goals scored1.8 goals/match5 obs.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2 goals/match5 obs.2.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.03 xG/match5 obs.1.92 xG/match5 obs.
Shots10.2 shots/match5 obs.15.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.8 shots/match5 obs.6.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession48.6%5 obs.58%5 obs.
Corners2.2 corners/match5 obs.4.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls9.2 fouls/match5 obs.7.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricSC FreiburgRB Leipzig
Goals scored1.7 goals/match10 obs.2 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.8 goals/match10 obs.1.4 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.17 xG/match9 obs.1.87 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.6 shots/match10 obs.14.9 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.7 shots/match10 obs.6.6 shots/match10 obs.
Possession49.4%10 obs.54.3%10 obs.
Corners3.3 corners/match10 obs.4.8 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls8.7 fouls/match10 obs.9.2 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricSC FreiburgRB Leipzig
Goals scored1.5 goals/match34 obs.1.94 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.68 goals/match34 obs.1.38 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.17 xG/match9 obs.1.87 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.2 shots/match34 obs.15.7 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target4.21 shots/match34 obs.5.94 shots/match34 obs.
Possession48.1%34 obs.53.9%34 obs.
Corners4.12 corners/match34 obs.5.29 corners/match34 obs.
Cards1.72 cards/match25 obs.1.44 cards/match25 obs.
Fouls9.35 fouls/match34 obs.9.26 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricSC FreiburgRB Leipzig
Goals scored1.94 goals/match17 obs.1.53 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.29 goals/match17 obs.1.59 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.33 xG/match5 obs.1.34 xG/match5 obs.
Shots14.2 shots/match17 obs.14.3 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target5.12 shots/match17 obs.4.71 shots/match17 obs.
Possession51.2%17 obs.51.9%17 obs.
Corners4.53 corners/match17 obs.4.71 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.92 cards/match12 obs.1.75 cards/match12 obs.
Fouls8.88 fouls/match17 obs.10.4 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.5 goals/match58th1.94 goals/match75th1.38 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.68 goals/match53th1.38 goals/match17th1.63 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.17 xG/match25th1.87 xG/match75th1.51 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.44 xG/match31th1.36 xG/match8th1.52 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason12.2 shots/match42th15.7 shots/match92th12.6 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason13.7 shots/match64th11.9 shots/match14th13.3 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason4.21 shots/match42th5.94 shots/match86th4.54 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason4.56 shots/match31th3.91 shots/match14th4.84 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason48.1%53th53.9%69th47.6%34 / 34
Cornersseason4.12 corners/match14th5.29 corners/match75th4.71 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason4.15 corners/match14th4.26 corners/match31th4.79 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason1.72 cards/match25th1.44 cards/match3th2.06 cards/match25 / 25
Foulsseason9.35 fouls/match25th9.26 fouls/match19th10.1 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason18%42th32%78th19%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason74%39th91%81th76%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsSC FreiburgRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v3