Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap

Hamburger SV

LLWDL

1–1Full-time recap

FC Augsburg

WWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Hamburger SV	FC Augsburg
Shots	17 shots/match	17 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.5 xG/match	2.28 xG/match▲
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	8 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

weak

Hamburger SV's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.2 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

11.9 fouls/match▲FoulsHamburger SV · FC Augsburg11.7 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Hamburger SV	FC Augsburg	Baseline
Fouls	11.9 fouls/match	11.7 fouls/match	10.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hamburger SV

0Draws

1FC Augsburg

22 Nov 2025FC Augsburg — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · FC Augsburg in 2 · 10 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.21 goals/match

1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.82 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.4 xG/match

3.23 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/32.58 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲12.9 shots/match

14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/2813.8 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/284.39 shots/match

4.61 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/284.71 shots/match

46.4%Possessionseason · 28/2845.4%

3.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/284.46 corners/match

5.46 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/285.43 corners/match

2.62 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/262.73 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2818%

68%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2871%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV41.7

FC Augsburg25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV41.7

FC Augsburg49.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV48.1

FC Augsburg34.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV58.3

FC Augsburg80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV88.9

FC Augsburg87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8

FC Augsburg30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV48.6

FC Augsburg56.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.4 xG/match

9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match

43%Possession5/541.8%

3.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.4 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.6 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match

44.8%Possession10/1044.3%

4 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

2.63 cards/matchCards8/82.5 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.21 goals/match

1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.82 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.4 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots28/28▲12.9 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on target28/284.39 shots/match

46.4%Possession28/2845.4%

3.79 corners/matchCorners28/284.46 corners/match

2.62 cards/matchCards26/262.73 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 14 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored15/141.07 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141.93 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.3 shots/matchShots15/1413.4 shots/match

4.73 shots/match▲Shots on target15/144.14 shots/match

45.6%Possession15/1444.2%

3.8 corners/matchCorners15/143.71 corners/match

2.43 cards/matchCards14/132.77 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

Both teams have elevated fouls records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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