PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC FreiburgFC St. Pauli
Shots8 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners9 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.9 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FC St. Pauli11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match10.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 5 too close

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/102 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1011.8 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲10.7 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/105.7 shots/match
50%Possessionseason · 10/1050.8%
4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.3 corners/match
3.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/103.6 corners/match
1.9 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 10/102 cards/match
8.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1010%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg55.6
FC St. Pauli63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg18.5
FC St. Pauli22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg75.9
FC St. Pauli37.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg2.8
FC St. Pauli13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg18
FC St. Pauli54.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg27.8
FC St. Pauli66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg12.5
FC St. Pauli45.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/511 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/550.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots10/1011.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4 shots/match
50%Possession10/1050.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots10/1011.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4 shots/match
50%Possession10/1050.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/511 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
52%Possession5/549.2%
6 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSC FreiburgFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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