PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Europa-Park-Stadion

SC Freiburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg won 2–1.

Shots
87
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.020.53
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – FC St. Pauli): shots 8–7, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.02–0.53, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.9 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FC St. Pauli11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match10.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots7 shotsSC Freiburg 8 shots, FC St. Pauli 7 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsSC Freiburg 4 shots, FC St. Pauli 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.02 xG0.53 xGSC Freiburg 1.02 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.53 xG
  • Possession60%40%SC Freiburg 60%, FC St. Pauli 40%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersSC Freiburg 9 corners, FC St. Pauli 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls12 foulsSC Freiburg 8 fouls, FC St. Pauli 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsSC Freiburg 2 cards, FC St. Pauli 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Danel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConnor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDerry Scherhant · SC Freiburg · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · SC Freiburg · 14′ · 0.11 xG · on targetYuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 28′ · 0.12 xG · on targetYuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 40′ · 0.14 xG · goalAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLouis Oppie · FC St. Pauli · 69′ · 0.18 xG · goalMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 15′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 50′ · 0.36 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.05 xG. FC St. Pauli: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Yuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg · 40′Maximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 50′Louis Oppie · FC St. Pauli · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 1.05 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1SC Freiburg
0Draws
1FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–1
SC Freiburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg10 matchesFC St. Pauli10 matches
1.3 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
1.35 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots10/1011.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 4 shots/match
50%Possession10/10● 50.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — FC St. Pauli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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