PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfB StuttgartFSV Mainz 05
Shots19 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners7 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · FSV Mainz 0513.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match15.5 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.1%▲PossessionVfB Stuttgart · FSV Mainz 0550.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession59.1%50.4%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 1 · 4 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/813.1 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/815.5 shots/match
5.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/82.88 shots/match
3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/85.25 shots/match
59.1%Possessionseason · 8/850.4%
6.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.63 corners/match
5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.13 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.88 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/80%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart91.7
FSV Mainz 0558.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart80.6
FSV Mainz 0529.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart83.3
FSV Mainz 0525.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart58.3
FSV Mainz 0552.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart29.1
FSV Mainz 0577.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart91.7
FSV Mainz 0572.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart76.4
FSV Mainz 0551.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
58.6%Possession5/547.2%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots8/813.1 shots/match
5.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.88 shots/match
59.1%Possession8/850.4%
6.25 corners/matchCorners8/85.63 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/812.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots8/813.1 shots/match
5.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.88 shots/match
59.1%Possession8/850.4%
6.25 corners/matchCorners8/85.63 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/812.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/41.5 goals/match
0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.8 shots/match▲Shots4/413.3 shots/match
6.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
57%Possession4/451.3%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/46.25 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls4/412.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfB StuttgartFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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