PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025MHPArena

VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 2–1.

Shots
1913
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
1.941.45
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 2–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – FSV Mainz 05): shots 19–13, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 1.94–1.45, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · FSV Mainz 0513.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match15.5 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.1% ●PossessionVfB Stuttgart · FSV Mainz 0550.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession59.1%50.4%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots13 shotsVfB Stuttgart 19 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 13 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsVfB Stuttgart 8 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.94 xG1.45 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.94 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.45 xG
  • Possession59%41%VfB Stuttgart 59%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 41%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersVfB Stuttgart 7 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsVfB Stuttgart 11 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsVfB Stuttgart 4 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Benedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFinn Jeltsch · VfB Stuttgart · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · goalJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 75′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05 · 55′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNikolas Veratschnig · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLorenz Assignon · VfB Stuttgart · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · FSV Mainz 05 · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNikolas Nartey · VfB Stuttgart · 46′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAmeen Al-Dakhil · VfB Stuttgart · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 13′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDanny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05 · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart · 46′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 5′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 64′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart · 34′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 19′ · 0.30 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 79′ · 0.51 xG · goalNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 41′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.90 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 45′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 79′Nadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 41′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 1.90 xG · FSV Mainz 05 1.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3VfB Stuttgart
1Draws
11. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–0
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–3
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart8 matches1. FSV Mainz 058 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
1.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.39 xG/match
15.6 shots/match ▲Shots8/813.1 shots/match
5.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/82.88 shots/match
59.1% ●Possession8/850.4%
6.25 corners/match ●Corners8/85.63 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/812.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB Stuttgart1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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