Strasbourg
Monaco
This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
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What the record shows
The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Key factors
The clearest supported patterns
Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.
Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season
moderateStrasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Home | Away | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.4 goals/match | 1.71 goals/match | 1.42 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Style profile
How the teams compare
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
Recent form
Season, last 10 and last 5
Window
Last 5
| Metric | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2.4 goals/match5 obs. | 2 goals/match5 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 2 goals/match5 obs. | 2.2 goals/match5 obs. |
| Expected goals | 1.43 xG/match5 obs. | 1.17 xG/match5 obs. |
| Shots | 12 shots/match5 obs. | 13.2 shots/match5 obs. |
| Shots on target | 5.4 shots/match5 obs. | 5 shots/match5 obs. |
| Possession | 55%5 obs. | 59.6%5 obs. |
| Corners | 5 corners/match5 obs. | 6.6 corners/match5 obs. |
| Cards | —0 obs. | —0 obs. |
| Fouls | 11 fouls/match5 obs. | 13.6 fouls/match5 obs. |
Window
Last 10
| Metric | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.8 goals/match10 obs. | 2 goals/match10 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 1.6 goals/match10 obs. | 1.8 goals/match10 obs. |
| Expected goals | 1.5 xG/match9 obs. | 1.54 xG/match9 obs. |
| Shots | 12.2 shots/match10 obs. | 12.8 shots/match10 obs. |
| Shots on target | 5.1 shots/match10 obs. | 4.9 shots/match10 obs. |
| Possession | 58.3%10 obs. | 53.8%10 obs. |
| Corners | 5 corners/match10 obs. | 5.5 corners/match10 obs. |
| Cards | —1 obs. | —2 obs. |
| Fouls | 11.1 fouls/match10 obs. | 12.2 fouls/match10 obs. |
Window
Season
| Metric | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.71 goals/match34 obs. | 1.76 goals/match34 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 1.38 goals/match34 obs. | 1.59 goals/match34 obs. |
| Expected goals | 1.5 xG/match9 obs. | 1.54 xG/match9 obs. |
| Shots | 11.4 shots/match34 obs. | 12.4 shots/match34 obs. |
| Shots on target | 4.65 shots/match34 obs. | 4.41 shots/match34 obs. |
| Possession | 53.7%34 obs. | 53.7%34 obs. |
| Corners | 4.15 corners/match34 obs. | 5.03 corners/match34 obs. |
| Cards | 2.16 cards/match25 obs. | 2.58 cards/match26 obs. |
| Fouls | 11.3 fouls/match34 obs. | 13 fouls/match34 obs. |
Venue split
Home and away samples
Window
Home team at home / away team away
| Metric | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.76 goals/match17 obs. | 1.59 goals/match17 obs. |
| Goals allowed | 1.12 goals/match17 obs. | 1.82 goals/match17 obs. |
| Expected goals | 1.22 xG/match5 obs. | 1.54 xG/match5 obs. |
| Shots | 12 shots/match17 obs. | 12.6 shots/match17 obs. |
| Shots on target | 5.06 shots/match17 obs. | 4.29 shots/match17 obs. |
| Possession | 51.8%17 obs. | 52.9%17 obs. |
| Corners | 4.76 corners/match17 obs. | 5.12 corners/match17 obs. |
| Cards | 1.75 cards/match12 obs. | 3.08 cards/match13 obs. |
| Fouls | 9.65 fouls/match17 obs. | 13.2 fouls/match17 obs. |
Metric comparison
Values, percentiles and samples
| Metric | Home | Away | Competition | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredseason | 1.71 goals/match69th | 1.76 goals/match81th | 1.42 goals/match | 34 / 34 |
| Goals allowedseason | 1.38 goals/match42th | 1.59 goals/match81th | 1.4 goals/match | 34 / 34 |
| Expected goalsseason | 1.5 xG/match64th | 1.54 xG/match69th | 1.47 xG/match | 9 / 9 |
| Expected goals allowedseason | 1.59 xG/match75th | 1.38 xG/match42th | 1.45 xG/match | 9 / 9 |
| Shotsseason | 11.4 shots/match47th | 12.4 shots/match64th | 11.5 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Shots allowedseason | 12.6 shots/match53th | 13.4 shots/match64th | 12.5 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Shots on targetseason | 4.65 shots/match64th | 4.41 shots/match58th | 4.14 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Shots on target allowedseason | 4.56 shots/match64th | 4.44 shots/match58th | 4.24 shots/match | 34 / 34 |
| Possessionseason | 53.7%69th | 53.7%75th | 49.7% | 34 / 34 |
| Cornersseason | 4.15 corners/match25th | 5.03 corners/match58th | 4.59 corners/match | 34 / 34 |
| Corners allowedseason | 4.62 corners/match36th | 4.32 corners/match25th | 4.87 corners/match | 34 / 34 |
| Cardsseason | 2.16 cards/match53th | 2.58 cards/match97th | 2.15 cards/match | 25 / 26 |
| Foulsseason | 11.3 fouls/match31th | 13 fouls/match75th | 12.5 fouls/match | 34 / 34 |
| Clean-sheet frequencyseason | 26%50th | 21%14th | 26% | 34 / 34 |
| Scoring frequencyseason | 82%83th | 79%69th | 71% | 34 / 34 |
Schedule context
Rest and recent workload
| Metric | Home | Away | Competition | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures | 4.08 days— | 7 days— | — | 1 / 1 |
| Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures | 2 matches— | 1 matches— | — | 1 / 1 |
What could change this?
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.