PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Paris FC

2–1Full-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match17.6 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match8.74 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Paris Saint Germain.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Rest days7 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC52.8
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC47.2
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC52.8
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC30.6
Paris Saint Germain69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC50
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC41.7
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC38.9
Paris Saint Germain73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricParis FCParis Saint Germain
Goals scored2 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match5 obs.0.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.51 xG/match5 obs.1.59 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.2 shots/match5 obs.16.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target5.4 shots/match5 obs.5.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession46.6%5 obs.66.6%5 obs.
Corners4.6 corners/match5 obs.7 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls9.8 fouls/match5 obs.5.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricParis FCParis Saint Germain
Goals scored1.9 goals/match10 obs.2.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match10 obs.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.49 xG/match9 obs.2.04 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.4 shots/match10 obs.17.2 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.8 shots/match10 obs.6.1 shots/match10 obs.
Possession43.8%10 obs.69.8%10 obs.
Corners4.5 corners/match10 obs.7.2 corners/match10 obs.
Cards2.67 cards/match3 obs.1.67 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls9.3 fouls/match10 obs.7.1 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricParis FCParis Saint Germain
Goals scored1.38 goals/match34 obs.2.18 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.47 goals/match34 obs.0.85 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.49 xG/match9 obs.2.04 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.6 shots/match34 obs.17.6 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target3.97 shots/match34 obs.6.65 shots/match34 obs.
Possession50.4%34 obs.68.9%34 obs.
Corners4.35 corners/match34 obs.6.35 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.44 cards/match27 obs.1.07 cards/match27 obs.
Fouls10.6 fouls/match34 obs.9.18 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricParis FCParis Saint Germain
Goals scored1.65 goals/match17 obs.1.94 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.59 goals/match17 obs.1 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.89 xG/match5 obs.2.08 xG/match4 obs.
Shots13.5 shots/match17 obs.15.2 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.53 shots/match17 obs.6.35 shots/match17 obs.
Possession52.2%17 obs.68.3%17 obs.
Corners5.53 corners/match17 obs.5.24 corners/match17 obs.
Cards2.86 cards/match14 obs.1.07 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls10.8 fouls/match17 obs.8.65 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.38 goals/match42th2.18 goals/match97th1.42 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.47 goals/match61th0.85 goals/match3th1.4 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.49 xG/match58th2.04 xG/match97th1.47 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.34 xG/match19th0.88 xG/match8th1.45 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason11.6 shots/match53th17.6 shots/match97th11.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason12.4 shots/match47th8.74 shots/match3th12.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason3.97 shots/match47th6.65 shots/match97th4.14 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason3.97 shots/match33th3.21 shots/match3th4.24 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason50.4%53th68.9%97th49.7%34 / 34
Cornersseason4.35 corners/match42th6.35 corners/match97th4.59 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason5.44 corners/match81th3.15 corners/match3th4.87 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.44 cards/match86th1.07 cards/match3th2.15 cards/match27 / 27
Foulsseason10.6 fouls/match14th9.18 fouls/match3th12.5 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason24%33th53%97th26%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason74%58th94%97th71%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—4 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsParis FCParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3