PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 3 May 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCStade Brestois 29
Shots17 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals1.79 xG/match▲0.77 xG/match
Possession51%49%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Luc Zogbé · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRudy Matondo · Paris FC · 7′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Paris FC · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRudy Matondo · Paris FC · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Le Guen · Stade Brestois 29 · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDiego Coppola · Paris FC · 67′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTuomas Ollila · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRaphaël Le Guen · Stade Brestois 29 · 70′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 67′ · 0.11 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 49′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRudy Matondo · Paris FC · 13′ · 0.17 xG · goalRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 20′ · 0.28 xG · goalRudy Matondo · Paris FC · 67′ · 0.36 xG · goalLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 89′ · 0.36 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.74 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 10 shots, 1 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Rudy Matondo · Paris FC · 13′Willem Geubbels · Paris FC · 20′Rudy Matondo · Paris FC · 67′Luca Koleosho · Paris FC · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.74 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.78 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.69 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.69 shots/match10.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Paris FC
0Draws
0Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 — Paris FC · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 2 · 3 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/311.32 goals/match
1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/311.65 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/60.81 xG/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/61.92 xG/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3110.8 shots/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3113.9 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/313.45 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/314.68 shots/match
50.9%Possessionseason · 32/3143.2%
4.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/313.81 corners/match
5.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/315.74 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲2 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3113 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/31▲29%
72%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3168%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC52.8
Stade Brestois 2919.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC47.2
Stade Brestois 2925
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC50
Stade Brestois 2919.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC25
Stade Brestois 2963.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC52.8
Stade Brestois 2951.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC47.2
Stade Brestois 2919.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC39.6
Stade Brestois 2931.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.7 xG/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
46.4%Possession5/547.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/51.8 corners/match
—Cards1/2—
8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals7/60.81 xG/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots10/108.7 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.4 shots/match
43.7%Possession10/1042%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/102.6 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards5/62.17 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 31 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored32/311.32 goals/match
1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/311.65 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals7/60.81 xG/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots32/3110.8 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target32/313.45 shots/match
50.9%Possession32/3143.2%
4.47 corners/matchCorners32/313.81 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards27/272 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls32/3113 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.94 goals/match
1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.94 goals/match
1.83 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.86 xG/match
13.3 shots/match▲Shots16/168.69 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target16/162.56 shots/match
53.1%Possession16/1643.1%
5.69 corners/matchCorners16/163.13 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards14/142.21 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.85 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples32 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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