Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 3 May 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap

Strasbourg

DWWLW

1–2Full-time recap

Toulouse

WLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Strasbourg	Toulouse
Shots	9 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.32 xG/match	1.17 xG/match▲
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	8 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Strasbourg: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.33 xG. Toulouse: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 0.33 xG · Toulouse 1.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

weak

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.61 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.9 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Strasbourg have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.7%▲PossessionStrasbourg · Toulouse42.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Strasbourg	Toulouse	Baseline
Possession	53.7%	42.3%	49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Strasbourg

0Draws

1Toulouse

6 Dec 2025Toulouse — Strasbourg · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 5 too close

1.61 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/321.41 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/321.41 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/70.99 xG/match

1.55 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/71.53 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/32▲12.8 shots/match

12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/3212.1 shots/match

4.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/324.25 shots/match

4.42 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/32▲4.09 shots/match

53.7%Possessionseason · 31/3242.3%

4.23 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/324.38 corners/match

4.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/325.03 corners/match

2.16 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/272.37 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3214.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3228%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3269%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg75

Toulouse13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg58.3

Toulouse58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg56.5

Toulouse56.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg8.3

Toulouse91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg41.7

Toulouse86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg30.6

Toulouse38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg43.1

Toulouse64.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match

1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.87 xG/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match

58.2%Possession5/536.8%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match

—Cards0/2—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals6/70.99 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.8 shots/match

4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match

58.4%Possession10/1041.5%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/52.2 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 32 matches

1.61 goals/match▲Goals scored31/321.41 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/321.41 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals6/70.99 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots31/32▲12.8 shots/match

4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target31/324.25 shots/match

53.7%Possession31/3242.3%

4.23 corners/matchCorners31/324.38 corners/match

2.16 cards/matchCards25/272.37 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls31/3214.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match

0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.38 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.79 xG/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.9 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.75 shots/match

52.6%Possession16/1641.3%

4.81 corners/matchCorners16/163.81 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards12/133.15 cards/match

9.81 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.84 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

Toulouse have a visible away split

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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