PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Nice

WDDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCNice
Shots16 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession40%60%
Corners8 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards6 cards/match3 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Moses Simon · Paris FC · 26′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGabin Bernardeau · Nice · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCiro Immobile · Paris FC · 13′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 87′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAdama Camara · Paris FC · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabin Bernardeau · Nice · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 63′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 68′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 52′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 70′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 60′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 26′ · 0.39 xG · goalTom Louchet · Nice · 3′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedKojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 36′ · 0.44 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.21 xG. Nice: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.22 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Marshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 26′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.21 xG · Nice 1.22 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

moderate

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris FC
1Draws
0Nice
Nice — Paris FC · Ligue 11–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 2 · 7 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲1.25 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/2411.5 shots/match
12.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2415.3 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲4.13 shots/match
4.04 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.29 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 24/2448.1%
4.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/245.04 corners/match
5.21 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/245.88 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/242.33 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2412.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2413%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC69.4
Nice41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC32.4
Nice41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC43.5
Nice6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC8.3
Nice47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC52.8
Nice58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC36.1
Nice69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC30.6
Nice51.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/549.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
3.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.9 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match
51.2%Possession10/1049.6%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲1.25 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots24/2411.5 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲4.13 shots/match
53.2%Possession24/2448.1%
4.29 corners/matchCorners24/245.04 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCards24/242.33 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls24/2412.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match
1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.1 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.33 shots/match
56.3%Possession12/1248.8%
5.58 corners/matchCorners12/124.83 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards12/122.58 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCNice
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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