PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

WWWLL
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonParis FC
Shots14 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nhoa Sangui · Paris FC · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRémi Himbert · Lyon · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRémi Himbert · Lyon · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 17′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRémi Himbert · Lyon · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRudy Matondo · Paris FC · 63′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRémi Himbert · Lyon · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdam Karabec · Lyon · 56′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 48′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 11′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKhalis Merah · Lyon · 23′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 55′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRémi Himbert · Lyon · 20′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedRémi Himbert · Lyon · 10′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 33′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 63′ · 0.74 xG · goalCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lyon: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.87 xG. Paris FC: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Corentin Tolisso · Lyon · 90′Marshall Munetsi · Paris FC · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lyon 1.87 xG · Paris FC 1.76 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.16 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.54 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.54 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lyon
1Draws
0Paris FC
Paris FC — Lyon · Ligue 13–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 0 · 5 too close

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.16 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.64 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/2511.4 shots/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2512.3 shots/match
4.68 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.64 shots/match
3.68 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.04 shots/match
54.8%Possessionseason · 25/2552.6%
5.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.2 corners/match
4.64 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/255.32 corners/match
2.2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.32 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2572%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon80.6
Paris FC63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon68.5
Paris FC32.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon74.1
Paris FC43.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon25
Paris FC13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon72.2
Paris FC41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon80.6
Paris FC36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon76.4
Paris FC29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/546.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shots10/109.5 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
53.5%Possession10/1049.4%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.16 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots25/2511.4 shots/match
4.68 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.64 shots/match
54.8%Possession25/2552.6%
5.56 corners/matchCorners25/254.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards25/252.32 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls25/2511 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 13 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored12/131.08 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots12/139.54 shots/match
4.42 shots/match▲Shots on target12/133.31 shots/match
57%Possession12/1349.2%
6 corners/matchCorners12/132.92 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards12/132 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1310.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLyonParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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