PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 6 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

LDLLL
0–0Full-time recap

Lille

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzLille
Shots6 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Habibou Diallo · Metz · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Perrin · Lille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRomain Perraud · Lille · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedUrie-Michel Mboula · Metz · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Lille · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 75′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 69′ · 0.08 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Lille · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHabibou Diallo · Metz · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 42′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 75′ · 0.18 xG · on targetBenjamin André · Lille · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Lille · 41′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 40′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 90′ · 0.35 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.63 xG. Lille: 16 shots, 2 on target, 1.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 0.63 xG · Lille 1.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.86 shots/match▲ShotsMetz · Lille14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzLilleBaseline
Shots8.86 shots/match14.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14.9 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Metz
0Draws
1Lille
Lille — Metz · Ligue 16–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 8 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.62 goals/match
2.19 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.86 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲14.3 shots/match
14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10.1 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.71 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.81 shots/match
48.4%Possessionseason · 21/2154.2%
3.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/216 corners/match
5.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.05 corners/match
1.76 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.38 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲29%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2162%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz41.7
Lille80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz10.2
Lille76.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz6.5
Lille69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Lille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz13.9
Lille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz25
Lille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz12.5
Lille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/548.2%
3 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.1 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.1 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match
48.4%Possession10/1050.5%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.62 goals/match
2.19 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.86 shots/matchShots21/21▲14.3 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.71 shots/match
48.4%Possession21/2154.2%
3.86 corners/matchCorners21/216 corners/match
1.76 cards/matchCards21/212.38 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲1.55 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/11▲13.4 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲4.55 shots/match
46.7%Possession10/1157.4%
4 corners/matchCorners10/116 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/112.91 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1112.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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