PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

Nantes

DDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleNantes
Shots11 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession56%44%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 50′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 31′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 37′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 79′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKelvin Amian · Nantes · 8′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTylel Tati · Nantes · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 41′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 52′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 19′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAmir Murillo · Marseille · 52′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 7′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 22′ · 0.24 xG · on targetLouis Leroux · Nantes · 79′ · 0.27 xG · on targetRémy Cabella · Nantes · 77′ · 0.36 xG · on targetLouis Leroux · Nantes · 74′ · 0.57 xG · on targetFabien Centonze · Nantes · 31′ · 0.77 xG · goalRémy Cabella · Nantes · 88′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.77 xG. Nantes: 15 shots, 9 on target, 3.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Fabien Centonze · Nantes · 31′Rémy Cabella · Nantes · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 0.77 xG · Nantes 3.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsMarseille · Nantes10.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleNantesBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against9.82 shots/match16.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.12 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.6%▲PossessionMarseille · Nantes42.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleNantesBaseline
Possession59.6%42.5%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 1 · 4 too close

2.12 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/170.94 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1710.1 shots/match
9.82 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1716.2 shots/match
5.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173 shots/match
4.24 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/175.41 shots/match
59.6%Possessionseason · 17/1742.5%
5.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/173.12 corners/match
3.53 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/176.59 corners/match
2.35 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲1.82 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1712.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1718%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille89.8
Nantes10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille72.2
Nantes15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille36.1
Nantes41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille56.9
Nantes31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille75
Nantes2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille74.3
Nantes16
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
59.2%Possession5/541.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/51.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.5 shots/match
5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
61.3%Possession10/1041.2%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/102.7 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
2.12 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.94 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots17/1710.1 shots/match
5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173 shots/match
59.6%Possession17/1742.5%
5.47 corners/matchCorners17/173.12 corners/match
2.35 cards/matchCards17/171.82 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots9/99.44 shots/match
6.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93 shots/match
61.4%Possession9/942.2%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.11 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls9/912.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/122.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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