PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 21 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

WWWLL
1–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceMarseille
Shots15 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Possession53%47%
Corners8 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Mendy · Nice · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Nice · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 42′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 31′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 53′ · 0.07 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 33′ · 0.08 xG · goalMelvin Bard · Nice · 45′ · 0.10 xG · on targetTimothy Weah · Marseille · 58′ · 0.10 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 41′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 16′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 63′ · 0.14 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 80′ · 0.14 xG · on targetTerem Moffi · Nice · 45′ · 0.19 xG · on targetTerem Moffi · Nice · 50′ · 0.27 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 74′ · 0.42 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 69′ · 0.54 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 45′ · 0.59 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 11′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.18 xG. Marseille: 13 shots, 11 on target, 2.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Mohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 63′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 11′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 33′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 53′Timothy Weah · Marseille · 58′Igor Paixão · Marseille · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 1.18 xG · Marseille 2.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Nice's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Marseille14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceMarseilleBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against16.2 shots/match9.46 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.3%▲PossessionNice · Marseille58.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNiceMarseilleBaseline
Possession46.3%58.8%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 8 · 6 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲2.54 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲14.2 shots/match
16.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲9.46 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲6 shots/match
5.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲3.85 shots/match
46.3%Possessionseason · 13/1358.8%
4.85 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.38 corners/match
6.46 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲3.62 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/132.38 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲38%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1385%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice41.7
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice39.8
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice10.2
Marseille73.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice63.9
Marseille52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice57
Marseille48.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice58.3
Marseille69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice48.6
Marseille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
40.2%Possession5/558%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.5 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.7 shots/match
43.1%Possession10/1059%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.54 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots13/13▲14.2 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲6 shots/match
46.3%Possession13/1358.8%
4.85 corners/matchCorners13/135.38 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards13/132.38 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.71 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.6 shots/match
5.14 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.43 shots/match
47.3%Possession7/757.6%
5.29 corners/matchCorners7/75.86 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 21 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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