PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Allianz Riviera

Nice 1–5 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

Nice

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1–5Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Olympique de Marseille won 1–5.

Shots
1513
Shots on target
711
Expected goals
1.192.86
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Marseille beat Nice 5–1. Recorded in this match (Nice – Marseille): shots 15–13, shots on target 7–11, expected goals 1.19–2.86, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsNice · Marseille14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceMarseilleBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against16.2 shots/match9.38 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.3%PossessionNice · Marseille● 58.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNiceMarseilleBaseline
Possession46.3%58.8%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots13 shotsNice 15 shots, Olympique de Marseille 13 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots11 shotsNice 7 shots, Olympique de Marseille 11 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG2.86 xGNice 1.19 xG, Olympique de Marseille 2.86 xG
  • Possession53%47%Nice 53%, Olympique de Marseille 47%
  • Corners8 corners6 cornersNice 8 corners, Olympique de Marseille 6 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 foulsNice 9 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsNice 2 cards, Olympique de Marseille 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Mendy · Nice · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Nice · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 42′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 31′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 53′ · 0.07 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 33′ · 0.08 xG · goalMelvin Bard · Nice · 45′ · 0.10 xG · on targetTimothy Weah · Marseille · 58′ · 0.10 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 41′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 16′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 63′ · 0.14 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 80′ · 0.14 xG · on targetTerem Moffi · Nice · 45′ · 0.19 xG · on targetTerem Moffi · Nice · 50′ · 0.27 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 74′ · 0.42 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 69′ · 0.54 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 45′ · 0.59 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 11′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.18 xG. Marseille: 13 shots, 11 on target, 2.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Mohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 63′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 11′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 33′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 53′Timothy Weah · Marseille · 58′Igor Paixão · Marseille · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 1.18 xG · Marseille 2.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Nice
1Draws
1Olympique de Marseille
Nice — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 12–0
Olympique de Marseille — Nice · Ligue 12–0
Olympique de Marseille — Nice · Ligue 12–2
Nice — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–0
Olympique de Marseille — Nice · Ligue 11–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nice favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nice13 matchesOlympique de Marseille13 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 2.54 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 0.92 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 2.02 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 14.2 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 6.08 shots/match
46.3%Possession13/13● 58.8%
4.85 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.38 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards13/132.38 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 21 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNiceOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headNice — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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