PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 7 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Rennes

DDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCRennes
Shots20 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners8 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThibault De Smet · Paris FC · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThibault De Smet · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 56′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Paris FC · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOtávio · Paris FC · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 47′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 35′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 89′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 32′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 39′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 68′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 81′ · 0.31 xG · goalQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 90′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 65′ · 0.67 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 20 shots, 4 on target, 2.00 xG. Rennes: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Breel Embolo · Rennes · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 2.00 xG · Rennes 1.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes have a visible away split

moderate

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rennes.

6.07 days▲Rest daysParis FC · Rennes5.24 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricParis FCRennesBaseline
Rest days6.07 days5.24 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 5 · 7 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.58 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.42 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/1213.1 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1214.4 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲4.58 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/123.83 shots/match
55.2%Possessionseason · 12/1251.1%
4.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.58 corners/match
4.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4.5 corners/match
2.17 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/122.33 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲25%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1283%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC75
Rennes58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC63.9
Rennes71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC43.5
Rennes41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC41.7
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC33.4
Rennes55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC63.9
Rennes75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC56.9
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
54.8%Possession5/548.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
3.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/matchShots10/1014.1 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
55.5%Possession10/1053.6%
5 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.58 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots12/1213.1 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4.58 shots/match
55.2%Possession12/1251.1%
4.92 corners/matchCorners12/125.58 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards12/122.33 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots6/69.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.83 shots/match
57.2%Possession6/653.2%
6.5 corners/matchCorners6/65.67 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/62.17 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls6/611.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 7 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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