PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

LDLDL
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLorientToulouse
Shots10 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Silva · Lorient · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 61′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoel Mugisha Mvuka · Lorient · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Cadiou · Lorient · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSambou Soumano · Lorient · 88′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 83′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPablo Pagis · Lorient · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMontassar Talbi · Lorient · 84′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 10′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 44′ · 0.82 xG · goalDjibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lorient: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.38 xG. Toulouse: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 44′Djibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 1.38 xG · Toulouse 1.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lorient. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lorient.

6.91 days▲Rest daysLorient · Toulouse6.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLorientToulouseBaseline
Rest days6.91 days6.91 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 6 · 5 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.5 goals/match
2.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲12.6 shots/match
9.92 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1211.6 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/123.75 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲3.33 shots/match
44.3%Possessionseason · 12/1242.8%
3.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.75 corners/match
4.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/125.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/122.75 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1214.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲33%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient25
Toulouse11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient40.7
Toulouse50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient41.7
Toulouse66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient75
Toulouse97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient40.2
Toulouse90.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3
Toulouse58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient26.4
Toulouse59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/513 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
45.4%Possession5/546.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.5 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4 shots/match
42.4%Possession10/1042.4%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/103 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.5 goals/match
2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots12/12▲12.6 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target12/123.75 shots/match
44.3%Possession12/1242.8%
3.5 corners/matchCorners12/124.75 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards12/122.75 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots6/610.3 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match
43.5%Possession6/643.3%
3.17 corners/matchCorners6/64.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/64.17 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls6/616 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLorientToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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