PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 19:05 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
6–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleLe Havre
Shots18 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession74%26%
Corners2 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYanis Zouaoui · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYanis Zouaoui · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 24′ · 0.06 xG · goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 19′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.07 xG · goalFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 8′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 67′ · 0.08 xG · goalIgor Paixão · Marseille · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYanis Zouaoui · Le Havre · 81′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Marseille · 45′ · 0.12 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 42′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 76′ · 0.29 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 72′ · 0.35 xG · goalAmir Murillo · Marseille · 90′ · 0.55 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 47′ · 0.70 xG · on targetRobinio Vaz · Marseille · 88′ · 0.71 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 35′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 18 shots, 11 on target, 4.06 xG. Le Havre: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 35′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 67′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 72′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 76′Robinio Vaz · Marseille · 88′Amir Murillo · Marseille · 90′Yassine Kechta · Le Havre · 24′Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 4.06 xG · Le Havre 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.63 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Le Havre have a visible away split

weak

Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.25 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Le Havre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Le Havre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsMarseille · Le Havre11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleLe HavreBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against9.38 shots/match9.63 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 1 · 7 too close

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.25 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/811.3 shots/match
9.38 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/89.63 shots/match
6.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.5 shots/match
3.25 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.25 shots/match
59.4%Possessionseason · 8/843.9%
5.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/83.75 corners/match
3.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/83.25 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲2 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/815.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/875%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Le Havre19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille92.6
Le Havre25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille91.7
Le Havre45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille52.8
Le Havre69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille70.8
Le Havre63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille77.8
Le Havre19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille82.6
Le Havre40.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match
60%Possession5/545.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/515.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots8/811.3 shots/match
6.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match
59.4%Possession8/843.9%
5.75 corners/matchCorners8/83.75 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls8/815.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots8/811.3 shots/match
6.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match
59.4%Possession8/843.9%
5.75 corners/matchCorners8/83.75 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls8/815.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
4 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots4/49.25 shots/match
6.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.5 shots/match
59.8%Possession4/437.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls4/414.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 23:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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