PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 3 Oct 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Lorient

WLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCLorient
Shots10 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession59%41%
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Aiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 81′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOtávio · Paris FC · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMontassar Talbi · Lorient · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 84′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPablo Pagis · Lorient · 36′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJoel Mugisha Mvuka · Lorient · 83′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 67′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 52′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNhoa Sangui · Paris FC · 87′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 30′ · 0.14 xG · goalWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 78′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 36′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 43′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 25′ · 0.29 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.03 xG. Lorient: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 25′Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 30′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.03 xG · Lorient 0.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lorient's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient have a visible away split

weak

Lorient's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lorient's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.4%▲PossessionParis FC · Lorient43.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis FCLorientBaseline
Possession55.4%43.4%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 2 · 5 too close

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.29 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/711.6 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲10.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲4.14 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 7/743.4%
4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/72.71 corners/match
4.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75 corners/match
1.14 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/73.57 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC75
Lorient25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC76.8
Lorient39.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC38
Lorient41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC58.3
Lorient75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC16.6
Lorient69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC52.8
Lorient2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC59.7
Lorient30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/539.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots7/711.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
55.4%Possession7/743.4%
4.86 corners/matchCorners7/72.71 corners/match
1.14 cards/matchCards7/73.57 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots7/711.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
55.4%Possession7/743.4%
4.86 corners/matchCorners7/72.71 corners/match
1.14 cards/matchCards7/73.57 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/40.25 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.3 shots/match▲Shots3/48.5 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/42.75 shots/match
57%Possession3/441.3%
6.33 corners/matchCorners3/42.75 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/43.5 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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