PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LWLWL
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceParis FC
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Antoine Mendy · Nice · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTerem Moffi · Nice · 3′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCharles Vanhoutte · Nice · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIsak Jansson · Nice · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 56′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 34′ · 0.10 xG · on targetWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 72′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Nice · 45′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Paris FC · 60′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 55′ · 0.19 xG · on targetWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 55′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 40′ · 0.44 xG · goalJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 88′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.93 xG. Paris FC: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Sofiane Diop · Nice · 40′Jean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 0.93 xG · Paris FC 1.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC have a visible away split

weak

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/match▲CornersNice · Paris FC5.5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNiceParis FCBaseline
Corners6.33 corners/match5.5 corners/match4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 3 · 8 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/614.5 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/612.5 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲5.5 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/64.67 shots/match
56%Possessionseason · 6/654.8%
6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65.5 corners/match
3.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/64.5 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲1.33 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice80.6
Paris FC69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice57.4
Paris FC79.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice41.7
Paris FC33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice63.9
Paris FC69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice63.9
Paris FC9.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice80.6
Paris FC63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice72.9
Paris FC60.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/514 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/552.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/matchShots6/614.5 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5.5 shots/match
56%Possession6/654.8%
6.33 corners/matchCorners6/65.5 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/61.33 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls6/610.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/matchShots6/614.5 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5.5 shots/match
56%Possession6/654.8%
6.33 corners/matchCorners6/65.5 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/61.33 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls6/610.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots4/411.3 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.5 shots/match
53.8%Possession4/454.3%
6.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.75 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls4/411.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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