PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap

Lille

WWWLL
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleParis Saint Germain
Shots9 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession38%62%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nabil Bentaleb · Lille · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint Germain · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint Germain · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 85′ · 0.04 xG · goalNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 66′ · 0.05 xG · goalThomas Meunier · Lille · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.13 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 43′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 81′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.22 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 83′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.47 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ethan Mbappé · Lille · 85′Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 0.47 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.56 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.86 corners/match▲CornersLille · Paris Saint Germain6.14 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLilleParis Saint GermainBaseline
Corners5.86 corners/match6.14 corners/match4.71 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

weak

Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.86 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3%▲PossessionLille · Paris Saint Germain70.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLilleParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession55.3%70.7%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 8 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/715.7 shots/match
10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲9 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5.71 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲2.29 shots/match
55.3%Possessionseason · 7/770.7%
5.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.14 corners/match
3.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.29 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲0.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/79.43 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲57%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille69.4
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille80.6
Paris Saint Germain89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille59.3
Paris Saint Germain93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille80.6
Paris Saint Germain30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille62.5
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille75
Paris Saint Germain80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille78.5
Paris Saint Germain69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
56.6%Possession5/568%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/matchShots7/715.7 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.71 shots/match
55.3%Possession7/770.7%
5.86 corners/matchCorners7/76.14 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/70.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls7/79.43 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/matchShots7/715.7 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.71 shots/match
55.3%Possession7/770.7%
5.86 corners/matchCorners7/76.14 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/70.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls7/79.43 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/matchShots4/415 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲5.5 shots/match
53%Possession4/469.3%
5.25 corners/matchCorners4/45.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/40.75 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/49 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.99 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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