PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille 1–1 Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1

Lille

WWWLL
1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille and Paris Saint-Germain drew 1–1.

Shots
917
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.651.5
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille and Paris Saint Germain drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Lille – Paris Saint Germain): shots 9–17, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.65–1.5, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.86 corners/matchCornersLille · Paris Saint Germain● 6.14 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLilleParis Saint GermainBaseline
Corners5.86 corners/match6.14 corners/match4.71 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

weak

Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.86 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3%PossessionLille · Paris Saint Germain● 70.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLilleParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession55.3%70.7%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots17 shotsLille 9 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 17 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsLille 3 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.65 xG1.5 xGLille 0.65 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 1.5 xG
  • Possession38%62%Lille 38%, Paris Saint-Germain 62%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersLille 3 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsLille 11 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardLille 1 card, Paris Saint-Germain 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nabil Bentaleb · Lille · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint Germain · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint Germain · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 85′ · 0.04 xG · goalNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 66′ · 0.05 xG · goalThomas Meunier · Lille · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.13 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 43′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 81′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.22 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 83′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.47 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ethan Mbappé · Lille · 85′Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 0.47 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.56 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Lille
1Draws
4Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain — Lille · Ligue 14–1
Lille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–3
Paris Saint-Germain — Lille · Ligue 13–1
Lille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Lille · Ligue 14–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille7 matchesParis Saint-Germain7 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.71 goals/match
2.04 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.56 xG/match
15.4 shots/matchShots7/715.7 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 5.71 shots/match
55.3%Possession7/7● 70.7%
5.86 corners/matchCorners7/7● 6.14 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/70.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls7/79.43 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headLille — Paris Saint-Germain
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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