PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 26 Sept 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgMarseille
Shots9 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Balerdi · Marseille · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 8′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKendry Páez · Strasbourg · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 88′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 30′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeonardo Balerdi · Marseille · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 41′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAmir Murillo · Marseille · 90′ · 0.10 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 78′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLeonardo Balerdi · Marseille · 31′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 49′ · 0.20 xG · goalAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 54′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 73′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedRobinio Vaz · Marseille · 90′ · 0.33 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 78′ · 0.34 xG · goalValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 20′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 8′ · 0.62 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 9 shots, 1 on target, 1.35 xG. Marseille: 16 shots, 9 on target, 2.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Abdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 49′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 78′Amir Murillo · Marseille · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 1.35 xG · Marseille 2.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsStrasbourg · Marseille13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgMarseilleBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 6 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲13.3 shots/match
11.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲10.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.83 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/63.67 shots/match
49.3%Possessionseason · 6/656.5%
4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66.67 corners/match
4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3.33 corners/match
2.67 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62.83 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/613.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/633%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg58.3
Marseille80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg41.7
Marseille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg66.7
Marseille75.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg8.3
Marseille36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg50
Marseille80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg41.7
Marseille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg33.4
Marseille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/553.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.83 shots/match
49.3%Possession6/656.5%
4.33 corners/matchCorners6/66.67 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/62.83 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/613.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.83 shots/match
49.3%Possession6/656.5%
4.33 corners/matchCorners6/66.67 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/62.83 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/613.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots3/3▲15 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲4.33 shots/match
46%Possession3/358%
5.33 corners/matchCorners3/36.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/33.33 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/312.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.03 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 26 Sept 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStrasbourgMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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