PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Mon, 22 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleParis Saint Germain
Shots9 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession32%68%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.2 corners/match▲CornersMarseille · Paris Saint Germain6.6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleParis Saint GermainBaseline
Corners7.2 corners/match6.6 corners/match4.7 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.8%▲PossessionMarseille · Paris Saint Germain73.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession55.8%73.4%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsMarseille · Paris Saint Germain15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match8.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 7 · 7 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/52 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲15.6 shots/match
10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/5▲8.4 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/5▲5.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲2 shots/match
55.8%Possessionseason · 5/573.4%
7.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/56.6 corners/match
3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/53 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/5▲0.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/57.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/5▲60%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille80.6
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille61.1
Paris Saint Germain85.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille70.4
Paris Saint Germain93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille30.6
Paris Saint Germain13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille69.5
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille97.2
Paris Saint Germain77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille66
Paris Saint Germain63.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/573.4%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/57.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/573.4%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/57.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/573.4%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/57.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
3.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/32.33 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots3/3▲14.3 shots/match
5.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.67 shots/match
55%Possession3/371.7%
6.67 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/30.67 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls3/38 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.97 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.11 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 22 Sept 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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