PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LWL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceNantes
Shots19 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Dante · Nice · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKelvin Amian · Nantes · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDante · Nice · 63′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAmady Camara · Nantes · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKelvin Amian · Nantes · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 72′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 2′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKelvin Amian · Nantes · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIsak Jansson · Nice · 85′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJérémie Boga · Nice · 56′ · 0.08 xG · goalAnthony Lopes · Nantes · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 62′ · 0.10 xG · on targetKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 35′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 17′ · 0.16 xG · on targetHong Hyun-seok · Nantes · 18′ · 0.36 xG · on targetJérémie Boga · Nice · 68′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 84′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.75 xG. Nantes: 14 shots, 3 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jérémie Boga · Nice · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 1.75 xG · Nantes 0.78 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nice's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Nice have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Nice show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nice's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Nantes8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceNantesBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match8 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match16.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Nice have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.5%▲PossessionNice · Nantes41%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNiceNantesBaseline
Possession57.5%41%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nice have a visible home split

weak

Nice's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/40.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/40.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/48 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/416.5 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/42 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/45 shots/match
57.5%Possessionseason · 4/441%
6.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/43.75 corners/match
3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/47.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/410.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/425%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice86.1
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice50
Nantes6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice45.4
Nantes45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice47.2
Nantes8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice81.9
Nantes16.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice69.4
Nantes25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice66.7
Nantes15.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/48 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42 shots/match
57.5%Possession4/441%
6.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.75 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/41 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/48 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42 shots/match
57.5%Possession4/441%
6.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.75 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/41 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/48 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42 shots/match
57.5%Possession4/441%
6.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.75 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/41 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 2 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/2—
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/matchShots3/2—
5.33 shots/matchShots on target3/2—
57%Possession3/2—
7 corners/matchCorners3/2—
2 cards/matchCards3/2—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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