PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 12 Sept 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleLorient
Shots15 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession72%28%
Corners10 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSambou Soumano · Lorient · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAbdoulaye Faye · Lorient · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Marseille · 33′ · 0.03 xG · goalBilal Nadir · Marseille · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBilal Nadir · Marseille · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGeoffrey Kondogbia · Marseille · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoel Mugisha Mvuka · Lorient · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 20′ · 0.13 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 76′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 60′ · 0.68 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 13′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 15 shots, 8 on target, 2.26 xG. Lorient: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 13′Benjamin Pavard · Marseille · 20′Angel Gomes · Marseille · 33′Nayef Aguerd · Marseille · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 2.26 xG · Lorient 0.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.8%▲PossessionMarseille · Lorient44%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleLorientBaseline
Possession61.8%44%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 0 · 14 too close

2.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.25 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/411.5 shots/match
10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/411.5 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43.25 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/45.75 shots/match
61.8%Possessionseason · 4/444%
7.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/42.5 corners/match
3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/46 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/43.5 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/412.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Lorient30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille69.4
Lorient34.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille63.9
Lorient25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille36.1
Lorient58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille69.4
Lorient86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille86.1
Lorient8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille66.6
Lorient38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
61.8%Possession4/444%
7.75 corners/matchCorners4/42.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
61.8%Possession4/444%
7.75 corners/matchCorners4/42.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
61.8%Possession4/444%
7.75 corners/matchCorners4/42.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Sept 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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