PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025Stade Joseph Marien

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1–0 KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise won 1–0.

Shots
154
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
1.360.54
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union St. Gilloise beat KV Mechelen 1–0. Recorded in this match (Union St. Gilloise – KV Mechelen): shots 15–4, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 1.36–0.54, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Union St. Gilloise's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union St. Gilloise's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.73 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

KV Mechelen show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

KV Mechelen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsUnion St. Gilloise · KV Mechelen10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricUnion St. GilloiseKV MechelenBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match10.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against8.27 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots4 shotsRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 15 shots, KV Mechelen 4 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 6 shots, KV Mechelen 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.36 xG0.54 xGRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 1.36 xG, KV Mechelen 0.54 xG
  • Possession42%58%Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 42%, KV Mechelen 58%
  • Corners7 corners0 cornersRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 7 corners, KV Mechelen 0 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls13 foulsRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 16 fouls, KV Mechelen 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards2 cardsRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise 4 cards, KV Mechelen 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anan Khalaili · Union St. Gilloise · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaul Florucz · Union St. Gilloise · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme Smith · Union St. Gilloise · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Barry · Union St. Gilloise · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPromise David · Union St. Gilloise · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Hammar · KV Mechelen · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPromise David · Union St. Gilloise · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRoss Sykes · Union St. Gilloise · 66′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFedde Leysen · Union St. Gilloise · 85′ · 0.07 xG · on targetGuilherme Smith · Union St. Gilloise · 75′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFedde Leysen · Union St. Gilloise · 60′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAnouar Ait El Hadj · Union St. Gilloise · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRoss Sykes · Union St. Gilloise · 47′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMathis Servais · KV Mechelen · 78′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBill Antonio · KV Mechelen · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKevin Mac Allister · Union St. Gilloise · 21′ · 0.15 xG · on targetPromise David · Union St. Gilloise · 35′ · 0.23 xG · goalKevin Mac Allister · Union St. Gilloise · 39′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedKeano Vanrafelghem · KV Mechelen · 82′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Union St. Gilloise: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.37 xG. KV Mechelen: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Promise David · Union St. Gilloise · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Union St. Gilloise 1.37 xG · KV Mechelen 0.54 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
2Draws
2KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen — Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · Belgian Pro League1–1
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League0–1
KV Mechelen — Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · Belgian Pro League1–1
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League1–0
KV Mechelen — Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · Belgian Pro League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · KV Mechelen in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise22 matchesKV Mechelen23 matches
1.73 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/231.26 goals/match
0.55 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/231.09 goals/match
1.86 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.17 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots22/2310.5 shots/match
5.77 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/234.09 shots/match
54% ●Possession22/2349.6%
5.68 corners/match ●Corners22/234.83 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards21/212.38 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls22/2310.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRoyale Union Saint-GilloiseKV Mechelen
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise — KV Mechelen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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