PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC Bayern MünchenRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise
Shots14 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals3.14 xG/match▲0.88 xG/match
Possession74%26%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Michael Olise · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · FC Bayern München · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPromise David · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 29′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTom Bischof · FC Bayern München · 4′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKevin Mac Allister · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Fuseini · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 86′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnan Khalaili · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 76′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 52′ · 0.15 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 2′ · 0.46 xG · on targetKevin Mac Allister · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 20′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.59 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 55′ · 0.82 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 81′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 14 shots, 4 on target, 3.22 xG. Royale Union Saint-Gilloise: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 52′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 3.22 xG · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 0.86 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.7%▲PossessionFC Bayern München · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise34.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenRoyale Union Saint-GilloiseBaseline
Possession58.7%34.9%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's recent record differs from the season

weak

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.4 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenRoyale Union Saint-GilloiseBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against9.43 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise in 0 · 3 too close

2.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.43 goals/match
2.61 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.36 xG/match
1.04 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/72.58 xG/match
17.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/712.4 shots/match
9.43 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/713.9 shots/match
7.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/75 shots/match
3.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.86 shots/match
58.7%Possessionseason · 7/734.9%
4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.71 corners/match
3.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.14 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München91.7
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise1.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München92.8
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München84.5
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München65.5
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München46.4
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise69
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München39.3
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise19
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München66.7
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
2.33 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.05 xG/match
16 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
57.6%Possession5/532.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
2.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.43 goals/match
2.61 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.36 xG/match
17.4 shots/match▲Shots7/712.4 shots/match
7.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/75 shots/match
58.7%Possession7/734.9%
4.43 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls7/712.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
2.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.43 goals/match
2.61 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.36 xG/match
17.4 shots/match▲Shots7/712.4 shots/match
7.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/75 shots/match
58.7%Possession7/734.9%
4.43 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls7/712.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
2.89 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.75 xG/match
19.8 shots/match▲Shots4/411.8 shots/match
7.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.25 shots/match
63.8%Possession4/432.5%
5.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

43.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/143 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenRoyale Union Saint-Gilloise
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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