PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTCFull time

Sunderland

2–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Sunderland's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sunderland have a visible home split

moderate

Sunderland's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Sunderland show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against14.2 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sunderland22.5
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sunderland14.2
Chelsea68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sunderland37.5
Chelsea63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sunderland22.5
Chelsea27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sunderland65
Chelsea85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sunderland10
Chelsea82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sunderland21.9
Chelsea71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricSunderlandChelsea
Goals scored1.2 goals/match5 obs.1 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match5 obs.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.05 xG/match5 obs.0.87 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.4 shots/match5 obs.10 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.8 shots/match5 obs.3 shots/match5 obs.
Possession50%5 obs.53%5 obs.
Corners4 corners/match5 obs.4.4 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls12 fouls/match5 obs.11.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricSunderlandChelsea
Goals scored1.3 goals/match10 obs.0.9 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match10 obs.1.9 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.36 xG/match9 obs.1.06 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.4 shots/match10 obs.13.2 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match10 obs.3.6 shots/match10 obs.
Possession47.1%10 obs.54.7%10 obs.
Corners4.1 corners/match10 obs.5.8 corners/match10 obs.
Cards4.33 cards/match3 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls12.8 fouls/match10 obs.10.3 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricSunderlandChelsea
Goals scored1.11 goals/match38 obs.1.53 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.26 goals/match38 obs.1.37 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.36 xG/match9 obs.1.06 xG/match9 obs.
Shots10.4 shots/match38 obs.13.4 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target3.42 shots/match38 obs.4.37 shots/match38 obs.
Possession44.9%38 obs.57.7%38 obs.
Corners3.63 corners/match38 obs.5.95 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.26 cards/match31 obs.2.87 cards/match30 obs.
Fouls10.7 fouls/match38 obs.11 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricSunderlandChelsea
Goals scored1.32 goals/match19 obs.1.68 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.05 goals/match19 obs.1.42 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.32 xG/match5 obs.0.72 xG/match4 obs.
Shots12.1 shots/match19 obs.11.6 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target3.63 shots/match19 obs.4.53 shots/match19 obs.
Possession46.1%19 obs.56.4%19 obs.
Corners3.89 corners/match19 obs.5.05 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.27 cards/match15 obs.3.25 cards/match16 obs.
Fouls10.3 fouls/match19 obs.11.2 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.11 goals/match18th1.53 goals/match75th1.33 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.26 goals/match18th1.37 goals/match55th1.36 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.36 xG/match43th1.06 xG/match8th1.4 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.33 xG/match38th1.46 xG/match63th1.41 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason10.4 shots/match13th13.4 shots/match73th12.6 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason14.2 shots/match88th10.9 shots/match13th12.4 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason3.42 shots/match13th4.37 shots/match58th4.03 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.45 shots/match83th4.21 shots/match43th4.26 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason44.9%23th57.7%88th50.2%38 / 38
Cornersseason3.63 corners/match10th5.95 corners/match83th4.91 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason5.13 corners/match60th4.29 corners/match13th4.99 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.26 cards/match78th2.87 cards/match98th1.91 cards/match31 / 30
Foulsseason10.7 fouls/match53th11 fouls/match73th10.6 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason29%78th24%43th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason66%20th82%73th74%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.04 days—4.82 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsSunderlandChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v3