Premier League · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTCFull time

Fulham

2–0Full-time recap

Newcastle

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.24 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham60

Newcastle67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham32.5

Newcastle63.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham67.5

Newcastle34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham42.5

Newcastle47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham61.2

Newcastle30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham52.5

Newcastle87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham45

Newcastle59.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

Metric	Fulham	Newcastle
Goals scored	0.8 goals/match5 obs.	1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed	1 goals/match5 obs.	1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals	1.18 xG/match5 obs.	1.48 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	13.8 shots/match5 obs.	12.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target	3.8 shots/match5 obs.	4.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession	52.6%5 obs.	50.2%5 obs.
Corners	5.8 corners/match5 obs.	3.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards	—1 obs.	—0 obs.
Fouls	11.6 fouls/match5 obs.	9 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

Metric	Fulham	Newcastle
Goals scored	0.7 goals/match10 obs.	1.3 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed	0.9 goals/match10 obs.	1.3 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals	1.25 xG/match9 obs.	1.43 xG/match9 obs.
Shots	13.5 shots/match10 obs.	11.6 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target	3.5 shots/match10 obs.	4.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession	53.4%10 obs.	50%10 obs.
Corners	5.7 corners/match10 obs.	3.6 corners/match10 obs.
Cards	3 cards/match3 obs.	—1 obs.
Fouls	10.1 fouls/match10 obs.	10.1 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches

Metric	Fulham	Newcastle
Goals scored	1.24 goals/match38 obs.	1.39 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed	1.34 goals/match38 obs.	1.45 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals	1.25 xG/match9 obs.	1.43 xG/match9 obs.
Shots	12.6 shots/match38 obs.	12.9 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target	3.66 shots/match38 obs.	4.61 shots/match38 obs.
Possession	51.9%38 obs.	52.6%38 obs.
Corners	4.92 corners/match38 obs.	6 corners/match38 obs.
Cards	2.16 cards/match31 obs.	1.86 cards/match29 obs.
Fouls	10.8 fouls/match38 obs.	9.82 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

Metric	Fulham	Newcastle
Goals scored	1.58 goals/match19 obs.	0.89 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed	1.05 goals/match19 obs.	1.32 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals	1.8 xG/match4 obs.	1.05 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	14.1 shots/match19 obs.	11.5 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target	3.95 shots/match19 obs.	3.74 shots/match19 obs.
Possession	52.8%19 obs.	53.2%19 obs.
Corners	5.47 corners/match19 obs.	5.26 corners/match19 obs.
Cards	1.94 cards/match17 obs.	2 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls	10.6 fouls/match19 obs.	8.79 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Goals scoredseason	1.24 goals/match30th	1.39 goals/match58th	1.33 goals/match	38 / 38
Goals allowedseason	1.34 goals/match43th	1.45 goals/match73th	1.36 goals/match	38 / 38
Expected goalsseason	1.25 xG/match33th	1.43 xG/match68th	1.4 xG/match	9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason	1.2 xG/match18th	1.7 xG/match93th	1.41 xG/match	9 / 9
Shotsseason	12.6 shots/match50th	12.9 shots/match63th	12.6 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots allowedseason	11.7 shots/match33th	12.3 shots/match48th	12.4 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on targetseason	3.66 shots/match18th	4.61 shots/match70th	4.03 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason	3.89 shots/match23th	4.42 shots/match78th	4.26 shots/match	38 / 38
Possessionseason	51.9%60th	52.6%68th	50.2%	38 / 38
Cornersseason	4.92 corners/match53th	6 corners/match88th	4.91 corners/match	38 / 38
Corners allowedseason	5.47 corners/match83th	4.92 corners/match45th	4.99 corners/match	38 / 38
Cardsseason	2.16 cards/match63th	1.86 cards/match43th	1.91 cards/match	31 / 29
Foulsseason	10.8 fouls/match60th	9.82 fouls/match18th	10.6 fouls/match	38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason	24%43th	21%23th	24%	38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason	71%43th	76%60th	74%	38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures	7.04 days—	6.94 days—	—	1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures	1 matches—	1 matches—	—	1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.