Premier League · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTCFull time

Crystal Palace

1–2Full-time recap

Arsenal

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Shots	11.6 shots/match	14.5 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	11.7 shots/match	8.11 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Possession	45.9%	56.2%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace32.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace26.7

Arsenal87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace55

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace57.5

Arsenal67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace58.8

Arsenal15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace17.5

Arsenal77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace32.5

Arsenal68.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

Metric	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
Goals scored	1 goals/match5 obs.	1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed	2.4 goals/match5 obs.	0.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals	1.37 xG/match5 obs.	1.68 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	11.4 shots/match5 obs.	14.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target	3.8 shots/match5 obs.	5.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession	43.8%5 obs.	57.2%5 obs.
Corners	3.4 corners/match5 obs.	4 corners/match5 obs.
Cards	—0 obs.	—0 obs.
Fouls	7.4 fouls/match5 obs.	10 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

Metric	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
Goals scored	1.1 goals/match10 obs.	1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed	1.7 goals/match10 obs.	0.6 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals	1.42 xG/match9 obs.	1.85 xG/match8 obs.
Shots	11 shots/match10 obs.	14 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target	3.6 shots/match10 obs.	4.7 shots/match10 obs.
Possession	48.8%10 obs.	52.4%10 obs.
Corners	4.1 corners/match10 obs.	5 corners/match10 obs.
Cards	—2 obs.	—2 obs.
Fouls	10.3 fouls/match10 obs.	10.7 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches

Metric	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
Goals scored	1.08 goals/match38 obs.	1.87 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed	1.34 goals/match38 obs.	0.71 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals	1.42 xG/match9 obs.	1.85 xG/match8 obs.
Shots	11.6 shots/match38 obs.	14.5 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target	3.74 shots/match38 obs.	4.89 shots/match38 obs.
Possession	45.9%38 obs.	56.2%38 obs.
Corners	4.16 corners/match38 obs.	5.66 corners/match38 obs.
Cards	2.2 cards/match30 obs.	1.33 cards/match30 obs.
Fouls	10.5 fouls/match38 obs.	10.2 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

Metric	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
Goals scored	1 goals/match19 obs.	1.58 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed	1.21 goals/match19 obs.	0.84 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals	1.47 xG/match5 obs.	1.76 xG/match3 obs.
Shots	13.3 shots/match19 obs.	13 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target	3.95 shots/match19 obs.	4.79 shots/match19 obs.
Possession	47.9%19 obs.	55.8%19 obs.
Corners	4.32 corners/match19 obs.	5.47 corners/match19 obs.
Cards	2.07 cards/match15 obs.	1.69 cards/match16 obs.
Fouls	10.4 fouls/match19 obs.	10.6 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Goals scoredseason	1.08 goals/match13th	1.87 goals/match93th	1.33 goals/match	38 / 38
Goals allowedseason	1.34 goals/match43th	0.71 goals/match3th	1.36 goals/match	38 / 38
Expected goalsseason	1.42 xG/match63th	1.85 xG/match93th	1.4 xG/match	9 / 8
Expected goals allowedseason	1.48 xG/match68th	0.95 xG/match3th	1.41 xG/match	9 / 8
Shotsseason	11.6 shots/match38th	14.5 shots/match83th	12.6 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots allowedseason	11.7 shots/match38th	8.11 shots/match3th	12.4 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on targetseason	3.74 shots/match30th	4.89 shots/match88th	4.03 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason	4.26 shots/match55th	2.37 shots/match3th	4.26 shots/match	38 / 38
Possessionseason	45.9%33th	56.2%83th	50.2%	38 / 38
Cornersseason	4.16 corners/match18th	5.66 corners/match78th	4.91 corners/match	38 / 38
Corners allowedseason	5.18 corners/match68th	3.29 corners/match3th	4.99 corners/match	38 / 38
Cardsseason	2.2 cards/match73th	1.33 cards/match3th	1.91 cards/match	30 / 30
Foulsseason	10.5 fouls/match45th	10.2 fouls/match28th	10.6 fouls/match	38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason	32%88th	50%98th	24%	38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason	68%33th	92%98th	74%	38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures	7.04 days—	5.83 days—	—	1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures	2 matches—	2 matches—	—	1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.