Chelsea
Premier League · 2025Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest · Premier League
A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.
Match at a glance
Nottingham Forest won 1–3.
- Shots
- 21–6
- Shots on target
- 5–4
- Expected goals
- 1.93–2.07
- Possession
- 68%–32%
Full time
What the match recorded
Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea 3–1. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Nottingham Forest): shots 21–6, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.93–2.07, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season
moderateNottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 3.2 goals/match | 1.26 goals/match | 1.36 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Nottingham Forest have a visible away split
moderateNottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: away
| Metric | Away only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10 shots/match | 12.3 shots/match | 12.4 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
The teams have contrasting possession records
moderateChelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.
Window: season
| Metric | Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession | 58.3% | 46.7% | 50.2% |
Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Chelsea favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 4 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
Chelsea / Nottingham Forest
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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