Premier League · 2025Sun, 3 May 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap

Aston Villa

LWDWL

1–2Full-time recap

Tottenham

DLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Tottenham
Shots	4 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.25 xG/match	1.03 xG/match▲
Possession	45%	55%
Corners	5 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Tottenham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.29 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

0Draws

0Tottenham

10 Jan 2026Tottenham — Aston Villa · FA Cup1–2

19 Oct 2025Tottenham — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Tottenham in 2 · 5 too close

1.37 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/351.29 goals/match

1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 35/351.54 goals/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.06 xG/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/61.09 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 35/3511.2 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/3512.4 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 35/353.94 shots/match

4.34 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/35▲4.03 shots/match

53.5%Possessionseason · 35/3550%

5.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/355.26 corners/match

4.77 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/354.86 corners/match

1.62 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.76 cards/match

9.89 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3523%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/35▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa77.5

Tottenham47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa52.5

Tottenham37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa40.8

Tottenham40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa27.5

Tottenham17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa15

Tottenham91.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 91%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa57.5

Tottenham62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa43.8

Tottenham55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.04 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match

54.4%Possession5/552.2%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.06 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots10/1011.9 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match

54%Possession10/1047.7%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls10/1014 fouls/match

Window

Season

35 / 35 matches

1.37 goals/match▲Goals scored35/351.29 goals/match

1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowed35/351.54 goals/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.06 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shots35/3511.2 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target35/353.94 shots/match

53.5%Possession35/3550%

5.17 corners/matchCorners35/355.26 corners/match

1.62 cards/matchCards29/292.76 cards/match

9.89 fouls/matchFouls35/3511.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

18 / 18 matches

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.39 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.33 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.03 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.3 shots/match

4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.89 shots/match

53.6%Possession18/1848.8%

5.61 corners/matchCorners18/184.83 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards15/142.29 cards/match

9.5 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.27 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Tottenham's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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