PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolNottingham Forest
Shots21 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession75%25%
Corners8 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Nottingham Forest12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.83 shots/match12.2 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 7 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.08 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/121.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1212.2 shots/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1213.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/124.17 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125.17 shots/match
61.8%Possessionseason · 12/1250.3%
5.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.17 corners/match
5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/125.17 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲1.67 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1211.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/128%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1250%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
Nottingham Forest52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool70.8
Nottingham Forest45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool40
Nottingham Forest19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool67.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool50
Nottingham Forest45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool67.5
Nottingham Forest37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool62.5
Nottingham Forest55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
61.8%Possession5/542%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match
61.9%Possession10/1049.1%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1212.2 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target12/124.17 shots/match
61.8%Possession12/1250.3%
5.42 corners/matchCorners12/125.17 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards12/121.67 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots6/69.83 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.17 shots/match
60.5%Possession6/648.2%
5.33 corners/matchCorners6/63.67 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards6/61.67 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls6/610.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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