PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeMolineux StadiumFull-time recap

Wolves

LLLLD
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolvesBrighton
Shots6 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners2 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.7 fouls/match▲FoulsWolves · Brighton13.1 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricWolvesBrightonBaseline
Fouls13.7 fouls/match13.1 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.43 shots/match▲ShotsWolves · Brighton11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolvesBrightonBaseline
Shots9.43 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wolves favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 8 · 5 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.43 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.43 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲11.7 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲10.4 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.29 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.14 shots/match
47.4%Possessionseason · 7/746.9%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.29 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲4 corners/match
2.14 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/73.14 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/713.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolves42.5
Brighton37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolves11.7
Brighton63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolves25.8
Brighton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolves12.5
Brighton67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolves77.5
Brighton92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolves25
Brighton42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolves36.9
Brighton63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
49.8%Possession5/544%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.43 shots/matchShots7/7▲11.7 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.29 shots/match
47.4%Possession7/746.9%
4 corners/matchCorners7/74.29 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/73.14 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls7/713.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.43 shots/matchShots7/7▲11.7 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.29 shots/match
47.4%Possession7/746.9%
4 corners/matchCorners7/74.29 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/73.14 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls7/713.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.25 goals/match
2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲12 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.75 shots/match
49.8%Possession4/451.3%
3 corners/matchCorners4/45.25 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards4/44 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolvesBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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